Tracking the 4 Year Price Cycle In Bitcoin
2 min read
Since its creation, there has existed a 4 year price cycle in Bitcoin. One large factor that contributes to the existence of this cycle is the Halving of the number of new Bitcoin created each day. That 50% reduction in the rate of new Bitcoins being created occurs every 4 years.
Whether or not we can determine all of the factors involved in creating the 4 year price cycle in Bitcoin, the fact is that the cycle does exist. The purpose of this page is not to examine the reasons the cycle exists, but to use the cycle as a guide to research and illustrate how the price of Bitcoin might progress as the year transpires.
In the table below, in the left two columns we’ve listed the exact highs and lows in the price of Bitcoin from 2017, the previous year of the 4 year cycle in which the Bitcoin price reached a significant high. That year was a cycle top. We’ve also included the date of the high or low as well as the price attained for each.
According to the 4 year cycle, 2021 is the next iteration of a cycle top. Since we’re not even 2 months into the year, we do not have all the data for an exact comparison.
In columns 3 and 4, the first three rows are actual data. Column 5 lists how close that turning point was to the turning point that occurred in 2017.
In column 4, from row 4 down, the price shown in italics is merely an educated guess as to what the price of Bitcoin might be at the time of the high or low. Obviously, this is merely a guess. The numbers are chosen accordingly to the same approximate percentage move that transpired in 2017.
Again, this table is presented merely as an illustration to where the price of Bitcoin might go in 2021 based upon the magnitude of the price move in the previous year of the 4 year cycle top. Nothing says that the price of Bitcoin has to follow this cycle.
| 2017 High or Low | Price $ | 2021 High or Low | Price $ | Days Difference |
| Jan 5 (High) | 1,191 | Jan 8 (High) | 41,947 | 3 days |
| Jan 12 (Low) | 756 | Jan 11 (Low) | 30,550 | 1 day |
| Feb 24 (High) | 1,200 | Feb 21 (High) | 58,331 | 3 days |
| Feb 25 (Low) | 1,125 | Feb 28 (Low) | 43,242 | 3 days |
| March 3 (High) | 1,280 | March 3 (High) | 52,535 | Exact |
| March 10 (Low) | 1,077 | March 5 (Low) | 46,543 | 5 days |
| March 16 (High) | 1,258 | March 13 (High) | 61,684 | 3 days |
| March 25 (Low) | 904 | March 25 (Low) | 50,857 | Exact |
| April 11 (High) | 1,208 | April 14 (High) | 64,863 | 3 days |
| April 13 (Low) | 1,156 | April 23 (Low) | 47,814 | 10 days |
| May 24 (High) | 2,764 | 100,000 | ||
| May 28 (Low) | 2,107 | 75,000 | ||
| June 5 (High) | 3,000 | 110,000 | ||
| June 14 (Low) | 2,213 | 80,000 | ||
| June 20 (High) | 2,772 | 102,000 | ||
| June 26 (Low) | 2,333 | 85,000 | ||
| July 6 (High) | 2,916 | 107,000 | ||
| July 15 (Low) | 1,843 | 69,000 | ||
| July 19 (High) | 2,901 | 106,000 | ||
| July 25 (Low) | 2,451 | 90,000 | ||
| August 14 (High) | 4,456 | 160,000 | ||
| August 21 (Low) | 3,675 | 125,000 | ||
| Sept 1 (High) | 4,975 | 175,000 | ||
| Sept 14 (Low) | 2,947 | 108,000 | ||
| Sep 18 (High) | 4,094 | 141,000 | ||
| Sept 22 (Low) | 3,595 | 122,000 | ||
| Oct 1 (High) | 4,470 | 161,000 | ||
| Oct 4 (Low) | 4,164 | 151,000 | ||
| Oct 14 (High) | 5,853 | 201,000 | ||
| Oct 17 (Low) | 5,151 | 181,000 | ||
| Oct 20 (High) | 6,195 | 205,000 | ||
| Oct 24 (Low) | 5,398 | 185,000 | ||
| Nov 5 (High) | 7,617 | 255,000 | ||
| Nov 12 (Low) | 5,519 | 195,000 | ||
| Nov 29 (High) | 11,517 | 385,000 | ||
| Nov 30 (Low) | 9,202 | 308,000 | ||
| Dec 8 (High) | 18,353 | 615,000 | ||
| Dec 10 (Low) | 13,226 | 415,000 | ||
| Dec 17 (High) | 20,089 | 700,000 |
The above table will be updated weekly to continue to compare the 2017 Bitcoin price action to the 2021 Bitcoin price action as it unfolds. Bookmark this page and check in regularly to keep track of the cycle performance.
