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Tracking the 4 Year Price Cycle In Bitcoin

2 min read
Bitcoin 4 Year Price Cycle

Since its creation, there has existed a 4 year price cycle in Bitcoin. One large factor that contributes to the existence of this cycle is the Halving of the number of new Bitcoin created each day. That 50% reduction in the rate of new Bitcoins being created occurs every 4 years.

Whether or not we can determine all of the factors involved in creating the 4 year price cycle in Bitcoin, the fact is that the cycle does exist. The purpose of this page is not to examine the reasons the cycle exists, but to use the cycle as a guide to research and illustrate how the price of Bitcoin might progress as the year transpires.

In the table below, in the left two columns we’ve listed the exact highs and lows in the price of Bitcoin from 2017, the previous year of the 4 year cycle in which the Bitcoin price reached a significant high. That year was a cycle top. We’ve also included the date of the high or low as well as the price attained for each.

According to the 4 year cycle, 2021 is the next iteration of a cycle top. Since we’re not even 2 months into the year, we do not have all the data for an exact comparison.

In columns 3 and 4, the first three rows are actual data. Column 5 lists how close that turning point was to the turning point that occurred in 2017.

In column 4, from row 4 down, the price shown in italics is merely an educated guess as to what the price of Bitcoin might be at the time of the high or low. Obviously, this is merely a guess. The numbers are chosen accordingly to the same approximate percentage move that transpired in 2017.

Again, this table is presented merely as an illustration to where the price of Bitcoin might go in 2021 based upon the magnitude of the price move in the previous year of the 4 year cycle top. Nothing says that the price of Bitcoin has to follow this cycle.

2017 High or LowPrice $2021 High or LowPrice $Days Difference
Jan 5 (High)1,191Jan 8 (High)41,9473 days
Jan 12 (Low)756Jan 11 (Low)30,5501 day
Feb 24 (High)1,200Feb 21 (High)58,3313 days
Feb 25 (Low)1,125Feb 28 (Low)43,2423 days
March 3 (High)1,280March 3 (High)52,535Exact
March 10 (Low)1,077March 5 (Low)46,5435 days
March 16 (High)1,258March 13 (High)61,6843 days
March 25 (Low)904March 25 (Low)50,857Exact
April 11 (High)1,208April 10 (High)61,2761 day
April 13 (Low)1,156April 11 (Low)59,2892 days
May 24 (High)2,764100,000
May 28 (Low)2,10775,000
June 5 (High)3,000110,000
June 14 (Low)2,21380,000
June 20 (High)2,772102,000
June 26 (Low)2,33385,000
July 6 (High)2,916107,000
July 15 (Low)1,84369,000
July 19 (High)2,901106,000
July 25 (Low)2,45190,000
August 14 (High)4,456160,000
August 21 (Low)3,675125,000
Sept 1 (High)4,975175,000
Sept 14 (Low)2,947108,000
Sep 18 (High)4,094141,000
Sept 22 (Low)3,595122,000
Oct 1 (High)4,470161,000
Oct 4 (Low)4,164151,000
Oct 14 (High)5,853201,000
Oct 17 (Low)5,151181,000
Oct 20 (High)6,195205,000
Oct 24 (Low)5,398185,000
Nov 5 (High)7,617255,000
Nov 12 (Low)5,519195,000
Nov 29 (High)11,517385,000
Nov 30 (Low)9,202308,000
Dec 8 (High)18,353615,000
Dec 10 (Low)13,226415,000
Dec 17 (High)20,089700,000

The above table will be updated weekly to continue to compare the 2017 Bitcoin price action to the 2021 Bitcoin price action as it unfolds. Bookmark this page and check in regularly to keep track of the cycle performance.