The table below goes back to the year 2015 and shows the exact day of the March low, as well as the price. It also shows the day of the April high, along with both the price on the day of the high and the size of the gain from the March low.
|March Low||April High|
|Price $||Date||Price $||Date||Gain %|
In studying the swing lows and highs from previous years, it’s obvious that over the last 6 years there has always been a low in March which has always resulted in a significant move higher into April.
Could this year break the trend? Of course.
But the yearly March low has a 100% track record to date, so the odds certainly favor the trend of the low in March continuing. To paraphrase Isaac Newton, “A trend (object) in motion tends to remain in motion in a straight line unless acted upon by an outside force.”
What might qualify this year as an outside force that wasn’t present in the previous years is the large influx of institutional money. How much of an influence that will have on the trend remains to be seen.
By studying the table above, along with the table in tracking the 4 year price cycle in Bitcoin, one analyst predicts this year Bitcoin will make a low on March 22, 2021 around $36,000, and will then climb to around $70,000 by the last day of April.
Will this forecast prove to be accurate?