This particular mathematical model that forecasts the price of Bitcoin was created just about 2 years ago.
It should be noted that pricing for assets in every market swing from periods of excess greed to excess fear, causing the asset prices to go through periods of being undervalued and overvalued.
Bitcoin is not exempt from these swings.
In spite of the normal pendulum swing from being overvalued to undervalued and back again, in general, the Bitcoin price has tracked the model’s projected price almost to perfection.
Here is the chart:
Notice in the above chart that the previous two iterations of the 4 year cycle top, namely 2013 and 2017, both saw the price of Bitcoin significantly exceed the price predicted by the model. Notice, also, that the bear markets that followed those years saw the price of Bitcoin dip below the value predicted by the model.
From late 2018 until late 2020, the price of Bitcoin spent nearly all of this time lower than what was theoretically indicated by the model.
However, since the beginning of this year, the price of Bitcoin has been trading above the model’s projected price. If past behavior is repeated in this cycle – which seems likely – the price of Bitcoin will likely continue to surge higher than the model’s projected value until reaching an extreme late this year.
It’s not out of the realm of possibilities.