Breaking Crypto News™

Latest News On Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple and All Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin Future Price

It has been estimated that only five percent of the entire world population have heard about the brilliant potential of the technology called Bitcoin. As Bitcoin and blockchain become more mainstream and experience widespread adoption, the future price of Bitcoin is set to reach heights that today seem unimaginable to most.

Bitcoin Halving Price Prediction

Before we start examining specific numbers, we’d like to call your attention to the Bitcoin halving that occurs every 4 years. Halving refers to the number of coins that miners receive for adding new transactions to the blockchain being cut in half. This is currently at 6.25 and will halve again every 210,000 blocks (every 4 years) until the last bitcoin is mined in 2140.

Bitcoin Price Prediction For 2021

With demand increasing year by year, and the number of new Bitcoins coming to market dropping in half every 4 years, the circumstances dictates that the overall trend for the price of Bitcoin to rise in the future.

With increasing demand and diminishing supply, there really is no other option.

It’s has been a tradition of ours every Christmas day to look at the current price of Bitcoin and compare it to its price on previous Christmases.

Here is Bitcoin’s Christmas day price history:
2010: $0.27
2011: $4
2012: $13 <halvening>
2013: $701
2014: $321
2015: $454
2016: $890 <halvening>
2017: $13,709
2018: $4,028
2019: $7,324
2020: $24,664 <halvening>
2021: see below!

If you pay close attention the the historical price patterns of Bitcoin, you’ll notice some trends that really stand out. First, there is clearly a 4-year cycle at work. At the end of the 4th year Bitcoin reached its first price peak, reaching $701 on Christmas day of 2013.

4 years later, it reached its second peak, attaining $13,709 on Christmas day of 2017.

Notice that each of these peaks were exactly 4 years apart. Notice the the peak came a year after the Bitcoin halvening, when the mining rewards get cut in half.

What Will The Bitcoin Price Be On Christmas Day 2021?

Taking into account another crypto bull run in 2021 – due around next Christmas – we can make some projections based upon the past.

Obviously, with the ole standard disclaimer of past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, these are just projections. Bitcoin doesn’t have to follow the same price patterns that it has been following for the past 8 years.

So, looking purely at the past two cycles and using the prices on previous Christmas days, we can extrapolate where the Bitcoin price will be on December 25, 2021.

On Christmas day of 2012, Bitcoin was worth $13. The following Christmas, it had climbed to $701, a gain of 53.9 times its price the previous year.

On Christmas day of 2016, Bitcoin was worth $890. The following Christmas, it had climbed to $13,709, a gain of 15.4 times its price the previous year.

Bitcoin 2021 Forecast:$379,825 to $1,329,389

If Bitcoin continues to follow its 4-year cycle – which we believe it will – then on Christmas day of 2021 the price of Bitcoin will be between 15.4 and 53.9 times its price yesterday. Or, specifically, between $379,825 (15.4 times) and $1,329,389 (53.9 times).

While these numbers might seem outrageous, we are simply using Bitcoin’s trend and continuing it into the future. THIS IS WHAT BITCOIN HAS BEEN DOING SINCE IT WAS CREATED. Why assume that it will suddenly stop doing what it’s been doing since its’ beginning?

Please do consider that there is a monetary crisis developing. Please do remember that central banks are printing fiat like crazy “in response to economic conditions due to Covid-19”. Please do remember what happens to the price of Bitcoin the year after the Bitcoin halvening (see above), and that this year (2020) was the most recent halvening year.

It is not unreasonable to think Bitcoin will be on the high side of this range next year, and not towards the lower end.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

With the basic assumption that blockchain/distributed ledger technology is both disruptive and here to stay, in this article we are going to provide some Bitcoin price predictions that we are certain are both shocking, yet at the same time are entirely realistic and likely to come to pass. Only time will tell if our analysis is correct.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025

In trying to determine a realistic price prediction of Bitcoin in the year 2025, we have a far lower degree of confidence in our forecast. There are just too many variables to really be able to nail down a close approximation.

It is entirely possible that not only the U.S. but most of the developed world experiences surging rates of inflation, with a possibility of becoming hyperinflation. Covid-19 is taking its toll on the supply chain. There is a very real, very measurable reduction in the supply of goods and services that we purchase every day. Simultaneously, governments and central banks around the world are going on a spending/printing stimulus spree in an attempt to counter the negative effects the shutdowns are having on economic activity. A classic recipe for inflation: more dollars chasing fewer goods.

This is very inflationary.

So, while we are going to present our Bitcoin price prediction for 2025, please understand that extreme measures by governments and central banks could cause the price of Bitcoin to end up several degrees of magnitude away from our target number.

We are going to use the same price multiplier taken directly from the first two 4-year cycle peaks and project out to the next peak that will be due at the end of 2025. However, we don’t yet know what the price will be at the end of 2021, so again, we will predict the low price based entirely upon what Bitcoin has done in the past.

If Bitcoin in 2021 goes up 15.4 times its Christmas day 2020 price, it will reach $379,825 at the end of 2021 for the cycle high. From there, if Bitcoin again goes up 15.4 times its Christmas day 2021 price of $379,825, it will reach $5,849,305 at the end of 2025 for that 4-year cycle high.

In summary, our price prediction for Bitcoin at the end of 2025 is over $5.8 million dollars.

And we quite possibly be on the low side with our forecast.

Tim Draper Bitcoin Prediction

Billionaire Tim Draper has previously made a Bitcoin price prediction of $250,000 by 2020. Our prediction is $379,825, so we are in the same ballpark.

However, he has recently given an interview in which he states that Covid-19 and the response by governments and central banks could condense the time needed for Bitcoin to reach his target.

A video of his interview is posted just after the conclusion.

Concluding Thoughts On The Bitcoin Price

Predictions are often fun to contemplate. We, however, believe this is much more serious that mere fun and games. The world really is experiencing a developing monetary crisis. A global financial reset will either be undertaken voluntarily, or will be forced upon us by crisis. Either way, the consequences will be earth shaking.

Bitcoin going up in price by 15.4 times next year and reaching over $379,000 is certainly not a return to be sneezed at. However, there are other altcoins with the potential to go up in value by a factor of 100, 500, and even 1,000-to-1.

Get More Price Predictions

If you enjoyed this article and would like more analysis on additional cryptocurrencies that have tremendous potential next year, we highly recommend that you check out our other price forecasts.

Tim Draper Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $250,000 Before 2022

Review Some Previous Noteworthy Bitcoin Predictions

December of 2013: Bitcoin Will Top US$40,000, Says Cameron Winklevoss

In the month of December 2013, Cameron Winklevoss predicted that Bitcoin’s price will eventually surpass US$40,000, which was roughly 40 times the value it had when he offered this particular forecast.

He described the “small bull” scenario during an “Ask Me Anything” conversation on Reddit:

The “small bull case scenario for Bitcoin is a 400 billion USD dollar market cap, so 40,000 USD a coin, but I believe it could be much larger. When this will happen, if it happens, I don’t know, but if it happens, it will probably happen much faster than anyone imagines,” he said.

January of 2018: Bitcoin Will Hit US$125,000 By 2022, Says Tom Lee

In the early months of 2018, Tom Lee, managing partner for Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicted that Bitcoin prices would rise to US$125,000 by the end of 2022.

At the time, when the digital currency was trading below US$10,000, he also forecast that it would hit US$25,000 by the end of 2018. He cited a valuation model that considered variables such as the expansion of the money supply and alternatives to that money supply, such as gold.

While his call for $25,000 by the end of 2018 was way off, we believe his forecast for $125,000 by the end of this year will prove to be conservative.

August of 2018: Bitcoin To US$96,000 By 2023, Says Satis Group

Bitcoin prices could reach US$96,000 by 2023, according to a report released by ICO advisory firm Satis Group.

When arriving at this figure, the two authors of the report, an analyst and a head of research for Satis Group, made use of fundamental analysis rather than technical analysis. They claimed that “currently, the vast majority of the total cryptoasset market capitalization is held in traditional store of value markets, with offshore deposits accounting for nearly 40% of the total.”

“Increased store of value use case penetration” will be the primary cause of this market capitalization increasing over time, they wrote in the report.

“We see penetration of the offshore deposits market by cryptoassets jumping dramatically in the next 1-2 years as custody solutions come online,” the authors stated, predicting that the total market value of these digital assets will rise sharply, climbing to US$3.6 trillion in 2028.

March of 2019: Bitcoin Could Surpass USD$1 Million In ‘7 To 10 Years,’ Says Xapo CEO

Bitcoin could reach more than US$1 million apiece in the next “7 To 10 Years,” depending on how thoroughly the digital currency is adopted, according to Wences Casares, CEO of digital currency firm Xapo. The article containing this info, dated 1 March 2019, made it clear that at the time, Bitcoin was worth approximately US$4,000.

Describing the cryptocurrency as an “experiment,” Casares predicted that if Bitcoin gains wide enough adoption, its price could skyrocket. “I have noticed over time that the price of Bitcoin fluctuates around ~ $7,000 x how many people own bitcoins,” he said. “So if that constant maintains and if 3 billion people ever own Bitcoin it would be worth ~ $21 trillion (~ $7,000 x 3 billion) or $1 million per Bitcoin.”

April of 2019: Bitcoin Could Hit US$50,000 In Next 2 Years, Says Peter Brandt

In April 2019, veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that Bitcoin could enter a parabolic bull marketclimbing to US$50,000 in the next two years. He elaborated on this prediction when speaking with Yahoo Finance YFi PM and emphasized the digital currency’s market history.

“I believe that charts reflect underlying supply and demand fundamentals and that’s how we have to look at it,” Brandt said. “What’s happened from December of 2017 to 2018 is really an analog to what happened in the 2013 to 2015 bear market, where we saw sequential 10 up-and-down moves in the bear market and we’ve almost identically formed that same sort of pattern.”

October of 2019: Bitcoin Could Reach US$100,000 By 2023, Says Crypto Analyst Tone Vays

Tone Vays, whose Twitter handle describes him as both a derivatives trader and analyst, stated during a 2019 Cointelegraph interview that bitcoin could rise to as much as US$100,000 by late 2023. The digital currency could hit this milestone if enough anticipation builds following the upcoming halving.

This past halving, which reduced the reward for successfully mining a bitcoin block by 50% (as each halving does), took place in May 2020. At that point, the aforementioned reward for completing a block fell from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.

After each halving takes place, the rate at which new units of bitcoin enter the system are reduced, affecting supply. Should enough anticipation build up going into the subsequent halving, which is scheduled to take place in 2024, bitcoin could potentially reach US$100,000, according to Vays. However, he emphasized that even after the halving in 2020, market observers would need to wait another four years for the subsequent event in 2024.

Vays also noted that the digital currency’s price could potentially skyrocket to US$100,000 in a rather short time, emphasizing that if a significant enough geopolitical event were to take place, it could place significant upward pressure on the cryptocurrency.

January of 2020: Bitcoin Will Surpass US$20,000 In 2020, Predicts BitPay Inc. Executive Sonny Singh

During an 8 January 2020 interview with Bloomberg, Sonny Singh, chief commercial officer for crypto payment services provider BitPay, offered a forecast that Bitcoin would rise above US$20,000 in 2020.

It did.

He mentioned that while many analysts are citing the upcoming halving when making price predictions, Sing believes that “unforeseen” circumstances will help drive the cryptocurrency above US$20,000 in 2020. He pointed to Facebook’s Libra and how the announcement of the proposed payment system affected the markets, which included a rise in Bitcoin’s price.

July of 2020: Bitcoin To Approach $US288,000 Before 2024 Halving, Says S2FX Model

On 1 July 2020, a person with the Twitter handle PlanB provided an update to a chart created for the BTC S2F Cross Asset Model, also known as S2FX. The model, which uses dots to chart Bitcoin’s price history relative to halving events, received a second red dot on 1 July. These dots are crucial because BTC prices have traditionally risen when these dots appeared after a halving.

According to the chart provided by PlanB, BTC started moving toward a major price increase following the 2020 halving. PlanB published a Medium post on the S2FX model in April 2020, in which he estimated that the digital currency will reach US$288,000.

Lastly, Here’s One From A Naysayer

Some people just don’t understand the significance of the blockchain.

Aug 2019: Bitcoin Will Never Reach US$50,000, Says Gold Advocate Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff, a market analyst and long-term gold bull, predicted in August 2019 that Bitcoin would never attain the US$50,000 price point. He made this forecast on Twitter, after Bitcoin bull Tom Lee criticised Schiff’s 2012 claim that gold prices would climb to US$5,000 within two years.

Schiff told Lee that “My gold forecast came a lot closer than your Bitcoin forecast.” He then added, “Plus at least gold will eventually hit 5k.”

The jury is still out on whether or not Schiff will be correct. However, it’s not looking good for him.

References:

  1. The economics of BitCoin price formation. Applied Economics
  2. [PDF] What drives Bitcoin price. Economics Bulletin
  3. [PDF] Using the bitcoin transaction graph to predict the price of bitcoin. pdfs.semanticscholar.org
  4. What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price? Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis. journals.plos.org
  5. Predicting the price of bitcoin using machine learning.ieeexplore.ieee.org
  6. The Bitcoin price formation: Beyond the fundamental sources.arxiv.org
  7. Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models. Elsevier
  8. An analysis of bitcoin price based on VEC model. atlantis-press.com
  9. Forecasting Bitcoin price with graph chainlets. Springer